Realtors expect market rebound by early 2008

Meeting in Orange County, the National Association of Realtors' leadership answer questions about legislation, discount brokers and the Justice Department's anti-trust suit.
By JEFF COLLINS
The Orange County Register
Dana Point The housing market will rebound by the end of this year or the start of next year, with U.S. home prices and sales rising in 2008, the CEO of the National Association of Realtors said during a recent leadership retreat at the Ritz Carlton here.
A new association forecast issued last week projected that prices next year will rise by 1.8 percent, but NAR CEO Dale Stinton was even more optimistic, saying he expects prices to go up as much as 4 percent next year.
"We don't quite see the gloom and doom that other people see," Stinton said. "When you look at the macro data and when you look at the country as a whole, it's still a pretty darn good time to be looking at property."
Stinton's remarks came during an interview last week with national and state leaders of the industry's biggest trade association. The leadership huddled for three days at the oceanfront hotel to prepare for Long Beach broker Dick Gaylord's year as NAR's 2008 president. Among their key comments during the interview:
NAR expects the current session of Congress to focus heavily on housing issues.
Officials defended NAR's position in a 2005 federal anti-trust lawsuit over use of online home listings. The case will probably go to trial in Chicago next winter.
While 11 states ban discount brokers from giving their clients commission rebates, NAR's ethical policies allow such rebates.
Here's a summary of their comments:
Housing legislation
Among the key actions on Congress' agenda this year is a measure that would raise the "conforming" home loan limits for borrowers in California, said Jerry Giovaniello, NAR's chief lobbyist. Currently, borrowers seeking to qualify for loans bought by agencies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are limited to borrowing $417,000, while the median price of a California home is above $590,000.
Other matters before Congress include Federal Housing Administration reforms to make the FHA-insured loans more attractive, creation of an Affordable Housing Trust Fund to pay for development and preservation of affordable homes, and foreclosure hearings to ask regulators why so many homeowners were allowed to get in over their heads, he said.
"What was troubling (about the first foreclosure hearings) is that some regulators said that the companies that were making loans (that ended up in default), 'we don't regulate them. There's no law that says we have to watch what they're doing,' " he said.
Giovaniello said Congress likely will require better disclosure so that borrowers using exotic loans understand what they're getting into.
Anti-trust suit
NAR is sticking by an online home-listing policy that sparked a U.S. Justice Department lawsuit accusing the association of suppressing competition.
At issue is a policy allowing brokers to "opt out" of having their listings appear on another broker's Web site. Critics say the practice seeks to eliminate discount brokers by keeping the listings of big real estate chains off their sites.
Laurene Janik, NAR general counsel, denied that the association is being anti-competitive, noting that only 48 brokers nationwide have used the opt-out policy to keep their listings off another's Web sites. She said that in some cases, Web sites allow sometimes inaccurate Zillow.com price estimates to appear on listings with prices well above Zillow's "Zestimates."
"Agents should be able to say that's not in my interest," Janik said.
Commission rebates
On a related topic, Janik also noted that while 11 states have banned commission rebates, such bans are contrary to NAR's policies.
"The bans have been on the books for many years, she noted, but only recently came into the spotlight as discount brokers sought to rebate part of their commissions to home buyers. NAR's code of ethic says is there's nothing inherently unethical about any gift, premium, prize or rebate that's offered to a consumer so long as it's adequately disclosed, she said.
However, Janik said the association won't seek to have those bans lifted because NAR does not get involved in lobbying at the state level.
"We leave a determination as to what's best for a state up to our state associations," she said.

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